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“If the government does not pay more, what can we do?” asks Anong Wannasupring, a farmer.įor all of its waste and corruption, the Shinawatra style of clientilistic mass politics helped to spread spending power to the poorer regions, where local bigwigs doled out funds disbursed from the central government. It now fetches 8,000 baht, thanks to the fall in global prices and the removal of the government’s price floor. At one point in his sister’s tenure, a tonne of rice brought in as much as 20,000 baht ($625).

He introduced cheap medical care, accessible rural credit, higher minimum wages and generous price floors for agricultural goods. When Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s brother, became prime minister in 2001 he aimed to bolster the income of the poor who voted for him. Thailand’s farmers used to rely on ballots, not lottery tickets, to get what they needed. This year farmers are running a lottery to determine who can draw stored rainwater. Last year Bangkok ordered farmers not to plant a second crop, because of poor rains. In Ban Phue, an hour’s drive from Khon Kaen, two years of drought and falling agricultural prices have led to a collapse in farm incomes.

Under Yingluck Shinawatra, the deposed prime minister, she sold one a week. Nongpetch Khunnasarn, a used-car dealer outside Khon Kaen city, the political heartland of the government ousted by the junta, has not made a sale for two months. The rural economy has contracted for seven quarters in a row. Stagnant demand is especially visible in the provinces. They rose by only 0.3% in the year to August.

This lack of spending is manifest in the inflation figures: consumer prices fell for 15 straight months last year and this. Strip out spending by foreign tourists and the gap is even larger, as the current-account surplus attests. The overall shortfall in demand will amount to about 1.4% of GDP this year, according to the IMF. Public investment, thanks to the junta’s big plans, is growing at a double-digit pace, but Thailand’s indebted consumers remain cautious and private investment is stagnant (see chart). Inflation is far less than the central bank’s target the current-account surplus is strikingly high (about 10% of GDP) private credit is subdued (growing by 5% in the first quarter) and sovereign debt is modest (44% of GDP in 2015). Thailand’s economy is operating well below capacity. That is not something that can be said about most of the world’s governments.Ī revival of domestic demand is necessary. The junta’s efforts to advance structural reform are more impressive than its efforts to revive demand. Nonetheless, the regime’s economic plan has left it open to an unusual charge: it is holding too many seminars on the long term and neglecting the short term, says Suradech Taweesaengsakulthai, a businessman in Khon Kaen, a north-eastern provincial capital. Neither America nor the European Union is willing to negotiate a free-trade deal with the junta, even as they talk to such regional rivals as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Thailand’s service sector is the most protected in South-East Asia. To bind the country closer together, the government is contemplating big outlays on infrastructure, including $51 billion to be spent on railways, roads and airports.

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It has also begun to reform the corporate governance of the country’s 56 state-owned enterprises, hoping to free them from political interference, even if not from public ownership. The junta has passed an inheritance tax one on land and property will follow. In pursuit of this vision, some welcome structural reforms are under way. This next stage will feature new “growth engines”, such as biotechnology, the internet of things and “mechatronics” (a fusion of mechanics and electronics). The junta sees Thailand climbing to a fourth stage of economic development (“Thailand 4.0”) beyond agriculture, light manufacturing and heavy industry. In a speech in Bangkok on September 28th, Prayuth Chan-ocha, coup leader and prime minister, promised to turn Thailand into a developed country by 2036. That has given them the confidence to draw up a 20-year plan for the economy. They have rewritten the constitution to guarantee themselves a guiding hand over future governments even after elections resume. Thailand’s military rulers have no such qualms. IN PLANNING for the future, democratic politicians dare not look far beyond the next election, lest they lose power before the future arrives.

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